May New York world sugar #11 (SBK26) fell by $0.28 (-1.97%) today, marking a one-month low, while May London ICE white sugar #5 (SWK26) declined by $7.90 (-1.87%), reaching a three-week low. This downturn in sugar prices follows India’s Food Secretary’s statement on Tuesday that there would be no ban on sugar exports this year, alleviating concerns about reduced sugar supplies due to increased ethanol production from the ongoing disruptions in crude oil supply caused by the Iran war.
India’s sugar production for the 2025-26 season is projected to rise by 12% year-on-year to 29.3 million metric tons (MMT), while Brazil’s output is expected to grow by 2.3% to a record 44.7 MMT. A report from the USDA anticipates a global sugar surplus of 3.4 MMT in the 2026/27 crop year, expected to continue with an overall rise in global production to 181.3 million MMT. Furthermore, India’s government approved an additional 500,000 MT of sugar for export, contributing to the pressure on sugar prices amid higher anticipated Indian exports.
