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On March 5, 2024, arabica coffee prices closed up +2.55 (+0.70%) and robusta coffee up +10 (+0.24%), as coffee prices rebounded following a drop the previous day. Below-normal rainfall in Brazil, particularly in Minas Gerais, which received only 11 mm of rain (17% of the historical average), supported this recovery.
Brazil’s coffee production estimate for 2025 was raised by 2.4% to 56.54 million bags. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s coffee exports surged by 39% year-on-year in November to 88,000 metric tons, contributing to a total of 1.398 million metric tons from January to November, up 14.8% year-on-year.
Global coffee supplies appear tighter, with the International Coffee Organization reporting a 0.3% year-on-year decline in exports for the current marketing year to 138.658 million bags. The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service projects a 2.5% increase in global coffee production for 2025/26, forecasting record production of 178.68 million bags, with Brazil’s production estimated at 65 million bags and Vietnam’s at a four-year high of 31 million bags.
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