The dollar index (DXY) is down 0.15% today as the U.S., Iran, and regional mediators discuss a potential 45-day ceasefire, alleviating liquidity demand for the dollar. This follows a decline in the U.S. March ISM services index to 54.0, lower than the expected 54.9, alongside a rise in the services prices paid sub-index to a 3.5-year high of 70.7.
Swaps markets currently indicate a 1% chance of a 25 basis-point rate hike at the upcoming April 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. In contrast, the European Central Bank is undergoing a sustained tightening cycle, with a 50% chance of a rate hike at its own April 30 meeting.
Precious metals are seeing mixed performance; June COMEX gold is up 0.34% while May COMEX silver is down 0.61%. Gold’s gains are supported by dollar weakness despite lower safe-haven demand, while Chinese gold reserves rose by 30,000 ounces in February, marking the sixteenth consecutive month of increases.
