On Wednesday, September ICE NY cocoa (CCU25) closed down by 28 points (-0.34%), while September ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU25) closed up by 16 points (+0.29%). The mixed results were attributed to currency fluctuations, with the dollar index reaching a two-month high and the British pound falling to a 2.25-month low, which positively impacted cocoa priced in sterling.
Concerns over cocoa supply from the Ivory Coast were highlighted as farmers shipped 1.75 million metric tons from October to July, marking a 6.1% increase from last year but down significantly from a 35% rise seen in December. Additionally, the International Cocoa Organization reported a projected global cocoa deficit of 494,000 metric tons for 2023/24, the largest in over 60 years, with production down 13.1% year-on-year to 4.38 million metric tons.
Bearish factors include a reported decline in chocolate demand, with Lindt & Spruengli AG lowering sales guidance after a steep drop in first-half sales, and Barry Callebaut AG also reducing its sales forecast due to persistently high cocoa prices. Additionally, cocoa inventories in U.S. ports reached a 10.5-month high of 2,368,141 bags, signaling potential oversupply concerns.
