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The dollar index (DXY) rose by 1.03% on Monday, reaching a one-week high, amid easing global trade tensions following a trade deal between the EU and the US, and indications that the US-China trade truce will be extended by three months. The deal will impose 15% tariffs on most EU exports, a significant reduction from previous threats of up to 50%. The dollar’s strength was also supported by a strong US Jul Dallas Fed manufacturing survey, which rose to 0.9, beating expectations of -9.0.
The EUR/USD fell by 1.29% to a one-week low as the EU-US trade deal was seen as advantageous for the US economy. In contrast, the USD/JPY gained 0.59% as the yen weakened due to reduced safe-haven demand. Federal funds futures are pricing in a 3% chance of a 25 basis point cut during the FOMC meeting on September 16-17 and a 17% chance for the same at the ECB’s meeting on September 11.
Gold prices fell 0.77%, and silver prices decreased by 0.38% on the same day, prompted by the dollar’s rally and reduced safe-haven demand amid the positive trade news. Despite pressure on precious metals, holdings of gold and silver in ETFs have reached two- and three-year highs respectively, reflecting ongoing safe-haven support stemming from geopolitical risks.
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