The dollar index is up by +0.19%, recovering from a 1.5-week low following a stronger-than-expected US unit labor cost report. This development is seen as hawkish for Federal Reserve policy amidst an increase in weekly initial jobless claims, which rose by +7,000 to 226,000, exceeding expectations of 222,000. Weekly continuing claims increased by +38,000 to a 3.75-year high of 1.974 million, indicating prolonged unemployment.
Meanwhile, President Trump announced a 100% tariff on semiconductor imports, along with doubling tariffs on US imports from India to 50%. If implemented, the average US tariff could rise to 15.2% from 13.3%. In foreign exchange, the euro fell by -0.29% after weaker-than-expected German industrial production and a decline in US dollar liquidity demand. German June industrial production decreased by -1.9% m/m, while June exports rose by +0.8% m/m.
In Japan, the yen slightly weakened as the Cabinet Office revised its 2025 GDP estimate down to 0.7%. However, a stronger-than-expected June leading index CI (up +1.3 to 106.1) provided some support. Precious metals are also seeing gains, with gold and silver prices rising, influenced by dovish Fed commentary and increased gold purchases by China’s central bank.
