The US dollar index (DXY) fell by 0.36% on Thursday, reaching a 4-week low, influenced by disappointing economic data. Q4 GDP was revised down to 0.5%, lower than expectations of 0.7%, while initial jobless claims rose by 16,000 to an 8-week high of 219,000, surpassing the anticipated 210,000. February personal income fell by 0.1%, against expectations of a 0.3% increase, and personal spending grew by 0.5%, below the 0.6% forecast.
In Europe, the euro rose 0.32%, supported by better-than-expected German trade figures, with exports up by 3.6% in February, significantly higher than the expected 1.3%. Conversely, German industrial production fell by 0.3%, contrary to predictions of a 0.7% rise. Meanwhile, Japan’s consumer confidence index dropped to a 10-month low of 33.3, while machine tool orders surged by 28.1% year-over-year, the largest increase in four years.
Gold prices rose by 0.85% and silver by 1.40%, driven by a weaker dollar and ongoing geopolitical tensions. However, a 3% jump in crude oil prices raised inflation expectations, potentially impacting central bank policies. The swaps market indicates a 25% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike by the European Central Bank and a 59% chance for the Bank of Japan at their upcoming meetings.
