As of today, September arabica coffee (KCU25) increased by 1.55% to reach +4.30, while September ICE robusta coffee (RMU25) rose slightly by 0.03% to +1. This rise follows forecasts of limited rainfall in Brazil’s coffee regions, prompting short covering in coffee futures.
Brazil’s largest arabica coffee-growing area, Minas Gerais, reportedly received no rain for the week ending July 5. The Cooxupe coffee cooperative announced that the coffee harvest was 40% complete as of July 4, compared to 52% last year. Additionally, Vietnam’s coffee exports for early 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 4.1% to 943,000 MT.
Despite recent price recoveries, coffee prices have retreated over the past two months due to projections of abundant supplies, with Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee output expected to increase by 0.5% to 65 million bags. The USDA’s forecast suggests a global coffee production increase of 2.5% to a record 178.68 million bags for the same period.
