UPS Gears Up for Q1 Earnings Report Amid Mixed Performance

With a market capitalization of $82.4 billion, United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) is a key player in package delivery and logistics. Founded in 1907 and headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia, the company operates through two main segments: U.S. Domestic Package and International Package. Investors are keenly awaiting UPS’s Q1 results, which will be announced on Tuesday, April 29, before market opening.

Analyst Expectations for Q1 and Future Earnings

Analysts predict that UPS will report a profit of $1.44 per share for the first quarter, a slight increase from the prior year’s $1.43 per share. Over the previous four quarters, UPS has exceeded analysts’ earnings estimates three times, but fell short once. Notably, in the last quarter, UPS’s earnings per share (EPS) reached $2.75, surpassing consensus expectations by 9.1%.

Forecast for Fiscal Years 2025 and 2026

For the full fiscal year 2025, analysts anticipate UPS will report an EPS of $7.69, down slightly from $7.72 in fiscal 2024. However, expectations for fiscal 2026 are more optimistic, with earnings forecasted to bounce back by 11.7% year-over-year to $8.59 per share.

Recent Stock Performance and Market Comparison

In the past year, UPS shares have decreased by 34.1%, significantly trailing behind the S&P 500 Index, which has seen a 4.4% gain, and the Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund, which increased by 2.4% during the same period. Following a mixed Q4 earnings report on January 30, UPS stock plummeted by 14.1%. The company reported a modest 1.5% year-over-year increase in consolidated revenues, totaling $25.3 billion, which fell short of market expectations. Although UPS posted a solid non-GAAP operating margin of 12.3%, its revenues did not meet investor forecasts.

Guidance and Analyst Sentiment

Looking ahead to fiscal 2025, UPS expects revenues to approximate $89 billion, a decrease from the $91.1 billion reported in fiscal 2024. The company also estimates operating margins of 10.8%, a figure that has further unsettled investor confidence after missing initial expectations.

The overall consensus on UPS stock is cautiously bullish, reflected in a “Moderate Buy” rating. Out of 28 analysts covering the stock, there are 17 “Strong Buy” recommendations, nine “Holds,” and two “Strong Sells.” The average price target of $128.73 suggests a potential upside of 36.7% from its current trading level.

On the date of publication, Aditya Sarawgi did not hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article are for informational purposes only. For additional details, please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

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