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Nasdaq-100 Performance Analysis Leading to Year-End
As of November 24, 2024, the Nasdaq-100 (NDX) is up approximately 18% year-to-date. Historical data shows that when the NDX performs well before Thanksgiving, it typically continues to rise through the end of the year. From 2000 to 2024, there have been eleven years where NDX was up 15% or more before Thanksgiving, and in nine of those years, it rose by an average of 2.45% by year-end.
A trader who bought NDX on the close the day before Thanksgiving would have essentially broken even over the past 25 years, achieving an average year-end change of near 0.00%, affected by losses in 2000 and 2002. The NDX’s worst yearly performance following a 15% increase has been a decline of 1.89%, while its best was a gain of over 6% in 2020.
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