As of today, July arabica coffee prices increased by 1.86% to $4.55, while July ICE robusta coffee rose by 1.82% to $60. The surge in coffee prices is attributed to the confirmation of an El Niño weather pattern by the Japan Meteorological Agency, which poses potential risks to coffee production in Asia and South America due to expected floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations.
Recent forecasts indicate a record Brazilian coffee crop for the marketing year 2026/27, estimated at 71.9 million bags, reflecting a 14% increase year-over-year, according to the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s coffee exports from January to May 2026 rose by 7.9% year-over-year to 922,000 metric tons.
Concerns regarding the El Niño pattern could hinder Brazil’s production next year, with the NOAA predicting a 67% chance of a “Super El Niño,” potentially the strongest on record. Additionally, coffee inventories at ICE have reached their lowest levels in over six months, with arabica stocks falling to 409,897 bags.
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