**Coffee Prices Surge Amid El Niño Concerns**
On Wednesday, July arabica coffee (KCN26) closed up 1.64% (+4.00) and July ICE robusta coffee (RMN26) increased by 1.85% (+61). This surge follows the Japan Meteorological Agency’s confirmation of an El Niño weather pattern, which raises concerns about potential flooding, droughts, and temperature fluctuations that could impact coffee production in Asia and South America later this year.
The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service recently projected a record Brazilian coffee crop for 2026/27 at 71.9 million bags—an increase of 14% year-on-year. However, smaller exports from Brazil and a drop in ICE arabica coffee inventories to a 6.5-month low of 402,709 bags have supported prices. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s coffee exports saw a 7.9% year-on-year rise from January to May 2026, totaling 922,000 metric tons, potentially contributing to bearish pressures on robusta prices.
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