March NY world sugar #11 closed on December 20 at $14.97, rising by 1.15%, while March London ICE white sugar #5 increased by 0.35% to $426.50. This rebound followed a decline attributed to a rise in the dollar index, with sugar prices recovering amid year-end fund short covering.
Brazil is projected to experience a decrease in sugar production, with forecasts from consulting firm Safras & Mercado indicating a 3.91% drop to 41.8 million metric tons (MMT) for 2026/27, alongside an 11% decrease in exports to 30 MMT. In contrast, India’s production for 2025/26 is expected to rise by 18.8% year-over-year to 31 MMT, leading to a potential increase in exports as the country boosts output amid a domestic supply glut.
Global sugar production is anticipated to grow significantly, with the USDA projecting a record 189.3 MMT for 2025/26, up 4.6% year-over-year. This includes a forecast of 44.7 MMT from Brazil, 35.25 MMT from India, and 10.25 MMT from Thailand, which could create a surplus in the market. The International Sugar Organization estimated a surplus of 1.625 million MT for 2025/26, a stark contrast to the prior deficit.
