As of today, July ICE NY cocoa is down -177 (-4.32%), while July ICE London cocoa #7 is down -113 (-3.66%). The decline in cocoa prices is attributed to rising supplies, with ICE cocoa inventories reaching a 1.75-year high of 2,810,211 bags. This follows an increase in cocoa delivery estimates from the Ivory Coast, which is now projected at 2.2 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 season.
In the current marketing year, the Ivory Coast has shipped 1.64 MMT of cocoa, a 2.5% increase from the previous year. Although concerns about an El Niño weather pattern may impact future cocoa production, chocolate demand remains steady as indicated by recent earnings from major companies like Hershey and Mondelez International. However, North American cocoa grindings have reported a decline of 3.8% year-on-year, while European grindings fell by 7.8%, marking the lowest Q1 figures in 17 years.
Further pressure on cocoa prices is expected from declining cocoa exports from Nigeria, which fell by 20% year-on-year in April. Notably, the prolonged drought in West Africa continues to concern producers, as over half of the Ivory Coast and two-thirds of Ghana are experiencing drought conditions.
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