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Key Insights on Betting Markets and Price Action
In the 2024 Presidential election, betting markets consistently favored Donald Trump over Kamala Harris, while traditional polls indicated the opposite. Notably, Polymarket received a $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) and other venture firms, underlining the growing influence of real-money betting insights over conventional polling methods.
On July 18, President Trump signed the GENIUS Act regarding stablecoins, yet shares of Circle Group (CRCL) fell 8% on the news, suggesting a bearish outlook despite the “good news.” In another case, after Trump’s tariff threats against China on April 7, the Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ) closed higher, indicating a disconnect between news and market reactions. Furthermore, AI company CoreWeave (CRWV) announced a $2 billion convertible notes offering; despite initial declines, the stock rebounded, illustrating a ‘bullish news failure’ in price action.
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