Five-Year Review: Evaluating My 2020 Predictions on Nvidia’s Stock and Business Performance

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As of March 1, 2025, Nvidia’s stock has yielded a total return of 1,760%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500’s return of 118% during the same period. A $1,000 investment in Nvidia has grown to approximately $18,600 since March 2020. Key drivers of this growth include the high demand for Nvidia’s graphics processing units (GPUs), primarily for artificial intelligence applications, and its dominance in the gaming market, where it held an 82% market share in desktop discrete GPUs as of Q4 2024.

Nvidia’s revenue from its data center platform skyrocketed from $2.98 billion in fiscal 2020 to $115.2 billion by fiscal 2025, reflecting an impressive 107% compound annual growth rate. Additionally, Nvidia’s gaming platform revenue increased from $5.52 billion to $11.35 billion, showing a CAGR of 15.5% during the same timeframe. While not all predictions were accurate—specifically regarding the legalization of fully autonomous vehicles—Nvidia’s overall business trajectory has remained strong, driven by its innovative technologies and market leadership.

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