Four Companies Poised to Surpass Apple by 2030

Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) currently holds the title of the world’s largest company by a significant margin, approximately half a trillion dollars. While it may seem unlikely for any company to eclipse Apple’s value, I predict that several stocks could achieve this feat by 2030. Given the current direction of Apple’s business and the growth of its competitors, it’s likely that Apple will lose its dominant position in the coming years.

Challenges Facing Apple

The four stocks I believe could exceed Apple’s market capitalization by 2030 include Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), and Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL). These companies rank second through fifth in market size, making them strong contenders.

If these companies maintain their growth trajectories while Apple’s revenue stagnates, they may surpass it soon. Apple’s revenue has seen minimal growth since its peak in 2022, following the pandemic-era surge.

AAPL Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts.

The stagnant growth at Apple coincides with its failure to launch any major new products recently. Additionally, its progress on artificial intelligence (AI) features has lagged significantly behind competitors. Apple’s AI initiative, Apple Intelligence, has not met expectations and remains underdeveloped. The company’s reliance on its past successes and brand reputation may prove risky. Currently, Apple trades at one of the highest valuations in its peer group based on the forward price-to-earnings ratio, which is derived from earnings expectations.

AAPL PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts.

In terms of valuation, Apple is the second-most expensive stock behind Amazon, with Microsoft showing similar pricing patterns. However, when assessing revenue growth rates, it becomes clear that Apple lags its rivals significantly.

AAPL Operating Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts.

While some analysts argue that investors should focus on earnings per share (EPS) growth for a mature company, this metric also highlights Apple’s shortcomings.

AAPL Normalized Basic EPS (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts.

In this analysis, I excluded Amazon and Nvidia from my chart due to their respective EPS growth rates nearing 80%, which complicate interpretations. While Apple and Microsoft have comparable EPS growth, Apple has experienced a decline in EPS, making it less competitive.

Strong Growth Prospects from Competitors

Looking ahead, what would enable these companies to surpass Apple by 2030? For starters, let’s assume Apple does not introduce any groundbreaking products. Although it has a legacy of innovation, its recent offerings have disappointed, particularly in AI.

Alphabet stands out as the most undervalued, with the potential to align its valuation with Apple’s. If Alphabet achieves the same forward P/E ratio, its market cap could reach $3.36 trillion, matching Apple’s. While it’s uncertain whether this will materialize in the next six years, if Alphabet’s growth outpaces Apple’s while both companies’ valuations stabilize, it may narrow the gap.

Nvidia is expected to see substantial growth, likely propelling it past Apple within a short time frame. Analysts project a 57% revenue increase for Nvidia in fiscal 2026, with possibilities for further growth. CEO Jensen Huang predicts data center expenditures may reach $1 trillion by 2028, allowing Nvidia to capture a significant share of that market.

Similarly, Amazon’s earnings growth positions it well to surpass Apple, primarily driven by Amazon Web Services (AWS), which contributed over half of the company’s operating profits in 2024. With AWS experiencing nearly 20% growth in Q4 and benefiting from increased AI spending, Amazon’s overall profitability will likely outpace its revenue growth, elevating its stock value significantly in the coming years.

Finally, Microsoft may face the most challenging path to exceeding Apple. It holds a similar valuation and enjoys comparable EPS growth rates. However, with its diversified AI investments and stronger revenue growth, Microsoft could realistically outpace Apple, especially since Apple only has a 16% lead in market cap.

Apple stands in a vulnerable position, making it susceptible to competitive disruption. I would not be surprised if all four mentioned companies surpass Apple’s market cap by 2030.

Considering an Investment in Apple?

Before purchasing stock in Apple, consider the broader context: