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On Wednesday, November Nymex natural gas prices rose sharply by +0.173 (+5.24%), reaching a 2.5-month high. This increase is attributed to forecasts of below-normal autumn temperatures in the U.S., expected to elevate heating demand. A cold front is set to move from the Midwest to the East between October 6-10, with additional cooler forecasts for the West from October 11-15.
Forecasts indicate a smaller increase in natural gas inventories, with a consensus of +64 bcf for the week ending September 26, below the five-year average of +85 bcf. Current U.S. dry gas production is reported at 107.5 bcf/day (+5.8% year-on-year), while lower-48 state gas demand stands at 66.2 bcf/day (-7.5% year-on-year), according to BNEF.
As of September 28, European gas storage was 83% full, versus the 5-year seasonal average of 89%. Additionally, the number of active U.S. natural gas drilling rigs has dipped to 117, slightly below the 2-year high of 124 recorded earlier this year.
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