On May 10, 2023, sugar markets showed mixed performance: New York’s world sugar #11 (SBK26) rose by 1.43% to reach a five-month high, while London ICE white sugar #5 (SWK26) fell by 0.38%. The fluctuations are attributed to currency strength and rising gasoline prices, which are enhancing ethanol production and putting pressure on sugar output.
According to Covrig Analytics, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has impacted around 6% of global sugar trade, tightening supply. Earlier estimates indicated a projected global sugar surplus of 3.4 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2026/27 crop year. India’s sugar output from October 1 to March 15, 2025-26 showed a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, reaching 26.2 MMT, with total production expected to rise to 29.3 MMT.
The USDA anticipates global sugar production in 2025-26 to hit a record 189.318 MMT, up 4.6% year-on-year, while human consumption is projected to increase to 177.921 MMT. Brazil is expected to see a production rise of 2.3% to 44.7 MMT, with India’s output forecasted to increase by 25% to 35.25 MMT.
