Cocoa prices saw a decline on October 2, 2023, with September ICE NY cocoa prices down 0.22% to -13 and September ICE London cocoa #7 down 0.21% to -9. This decrease follows a report from Ghana’s cocoa board indicating a 25.6% increase in harvested cocoa for the 2025/26 season, totaling 750,000 MT, compared to 597,000 MT in 2024/25.
Simultaneously, concerns about future cocoa production have emerged, with COCOBOD predicting a reduction to between 450,000 MT and 550,000 MT for the 2026/27 season due to factors such as aging farms and adverse weather conditions linked to the El Niño weather pattern. Additionally, global cocoa supplies from the Ivory Coast show an increase, with farmers shipping 2.11 million MT, a rise of 20% year-over-year.
The mixed demand outlook continues, with Q2 cocoa grindings in Europe down 4.6% to 316,366 MT, while North American grindings rose by 7.7% to 109,659 MT, easing some demand concerns. The industry anticipates a smaller global cocoa surplus with estimates dropping from 149,000 MT to 25,000 MT for 2026/27 due to expected production declines.
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