As of today, September ICE NY cocoa (CCU25) rose by 3.97% to +345 and July ICE London cocoa #7 (CAN25) increased by 3.35% to +202, reaching one-week highs. This surge is attributed to a revised production forecast from Ghana’s Cocoa Board, which now expects 2024/25 cocoa production to drop to 600,000 MT from a previous estimate of 617,500 MT.
Meanwhile, Nigeria’s May cocoa exports saw a significant 29% year-over-year decline to 14,110 MT, raising concerns about tightened global supplies. The Ivory Coast also faces challenges, with government data indicating a 6.9% increase in cocoa shipments, but reports of heavy rain disrupting harvest and quality issues in mid-crop cocoa add to the pressure.
Despite recent favorable rains in West Africa, cocoa prices are being affected by a broader bearish sentiment driven by economic uncertainties, as exemplified by various chocolate companies reducing sales forecasts due to high cocoa prices and anticipated tariff costs.
