On September 26, 2023, cocoa prices hit one-week lows with September ICE NY cocoa (CCU25) down 7.59% to close at -683, and September ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU25) down 4.53% to -269. The decline comes amid forecasts from the Ghana Cocoa Board, which projects a +8.3% increase in the 2025/26 cocoa crop to 650,000 MT from 600,000 MT in 2024/25.
Current cocoa inventories rose to a 9-3/4 month high of 2,363,861 bags on June 18, up from a 21-year low of 1,263,493 bags in January. Meanwhile, shipping data from the Ivory Coast shows a +6.8% increase in cocoa shipped this marketing year, though adverse weather is disrupting its mid-crop harvest.
In Q1 2023, North American cocoa grindings declined 2.5% y/y to 110,278 MT, European grindings fell 3.7% to 353,522 MT, and Asian grindings decreased 3.4% to 213,898 MT. The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) has also revised its global cocoa deficit for 2023/24 to -494,000 MT.
