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As of today, December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ25) has decreased by $91 (-1.52%), and December ICE London cocoa #7 (CAZ25) has fallen by $70 (-1.67%), following signs of weakened global cocoa demand. In Q3, Asia’s cocoa grindings decreased by 17% year-over-year to 183,413 MT, the lowest for a Q3 in nine years, while Europe experienced a 4.8% drop to 337,353 MT, marking a ten-year low for the same period. In contrast, North America’s cocoa grindings rose by 3.2% to 112,784 MT, although new reporting companies distorted the bullish data.
Cocoa inventories in U.S. ports reached a six-month low of 1,875,325 bags, while commodity funds increased their net-short positions in London cocoa to 10,771, the highest in over three years. Cocoa prices are under pressure due to expectations of abundant supplies amid weak demand, with U.S. chocolate sales volume dropping more than 21% in the 13 weeks ending September 7. Additionally, the Ivory Coast is anticipating improved cocoa crops, with the latest pod count reported to be 7% above the five-year average.
From October 1-11, Ivory Coast shipped 48,753 MT of cocoa, compared to 100,264 MT during the same period last year. The International Cocoa Organization revised its 2023/24 global cocoa deficit to 494,000 MT, the largest in over 60 years, projecting production to decrease by 13.1% to 4.38 million MT. However, a forecast for the 2024/25 season hints at a potential surplus of 142,000 MT, marking the first surplus in four years.
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