March ICE NY cocoa prices fell by 2.44%, closing down $124 at a nearly two-year low, while March ICE London cocoa prices dropped by 2.30%, closing down $86. This decline is largely attributed to weak global cocoa demand, as evidenced by a report from the European Cocoa Association showing a year-over-year decline in Q4 European cocoa grindings of 8.3%, totaling 304,470 metric tons—the lowest for a fourth quarter in twelve years.
Favorable growing conditions in West Africa are also impacting cocoa prices, with significant increases in cocoa pod counts reported by chocolate maker Mondelez. Shipments from the Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, decreased by 2.6% compared to the previous year, though recent data shows US cocoa inventories recovered to a 1.25-month high of 1,680,417 bags. Meanwhile, the International Cocoa Organization has revised global production estimates down to 4.69 million metric tons for 2024/25, contributing to a tightening supply outlook.
