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On Thursday, January WTI crude oil (CLF26) closed at $59.53, up by $0.72 (+1.22%), marking a two-week high. In contrast, January RBOB gasoline (RBF26) fell slightly, closing down $0.0001 (-0.01%). Crude prices are supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions in Ukraine, as US-Russian talks failed to yield a resolution, maintaining sanctions on Russian energy exports.
Crude exports from Russia have dipped significantly, reaching 1.7 million bpd—its lowest in over three years, according to Vortexa data. This decline follows multiple attacks on Russian oil facilities and ongoing sanctions from the US and EU. Additionally, OPEC+ is expected to maintain its production cuts, having decided to hold back production increases due to an emerging global surplus forecasted at 4 million bpd for 2026, as noted in their recent announcements.
Meanwhile, US oil inventories as of November 28 were reported at 3.0% below the seasonal average, with production remaining steady at 13.815 million bpd. The number of active US oil rigs fell to a four-year low of 407, down from a peak of 627 rigs in December 2022, per Baker Hughes data.
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