June WTI crude oil rose by $3.56 (+3.69%) and June RBOB gasoline increased by $0.0623 (+1.85%) on Tuesday, marking a two-week high for crude and a 3.75-year high for gasoline. The surge is attributed to stalled U.S.-Iran peace talks that have kept the Strait of Hormuz closed, significantly tightening global oil supplies. Goldman Sachs estimates that production in the Persian Gulf has dropped by approximately 14.5 million barrels per day, leading to a depletion of nearly 500 million barrels from global crude stockpiles this April.
The International Energy Agency reports that the ongoing conflict and blockade have shuttered about 13 million barrels per day of global oil supply. Additionally, OPEC+ announced plans to increase output by 206,000 barrels per day in May, although this may be curtailed by the ongoing Middle East tensions. Meanwhile, U.S. crude production fell slightly to 13.585 million barrels per day as of April 17, with active oil rigs in the U.S. declining to 407, near a 4.25-year low.
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