On October 2, 2023, sugar prices surged, with New York world sugar #11 (SBV26) rising by 2.02% to a 16.75-month high, and London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV26) increasing by 1.39% to a one-week high. This price rally is driven by forecasts indicating a global sugar deficit, with the International Sugar Organization (ISO) projecting a shortfall of 200,000 metric tons in the 2026/27 season.
Key data shows that the projected sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season has been revised down to 1.1 million metric tons from previous estimates. Concurrently, the European Union’s Sugar Market Observatory is anticipating a 19% year-on-year drop in EU sugar production for the 2026/27 season, predicting levels to reach only 13.4 million metric tons.
In India, the cumulative monsoon rainfall has been reported at 13% below normal, causing concerns about reduced sugar production ahead of the crucial growing season. The country recently announced a tax-free import allowance of up to 1 million metric tons of raw sugar until October 31, reflecting significant supply pressures in the global market.
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