**Sugar Market Update: October 2023**
On October 2, 2023, New York world sugar #11 (SBV26) rose by 0.23 cents, or 1.31%, driven by a projected global sugar deficit. Last week, New York sugar reached a 16.5-month high, while London sugar hit a 17-month high. The European Union’s Sugar Market Observatory reported a -19% year-on-year decline in EU sugar production for 2026/27, estimating production at 13.4 million metric tons (MMT). Additionally, global sugar production is expected to experience a deficit of 3.2 MMT, with various forecasts indicating potential decreases in production from Brazil, India, and Thailand due to adverse weather conditions and changes in agricultural practices.
Concerns about insufficient rainfall, particularly in India, where cumulative monsoon rainfall as of August 31 was 14% below normal, are amplifying market apprehensions. The USDA has projected a significant reduction in global sugar production for 2026/27, estimating a decline of 6.5% year-on-year to 184.854 MMT. Conversely, the USDA forecasts a record rise in global sugar consumption, expected to reach 179.991 MMT, highlighting the ongoing imbalance in the market.
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