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March NY world sugar #11 is down $0.05 (-0.35%), while December London ICE white sugar #5 has decreased by $2.70 (-0.65%). As of Thursday, NY sugar prices reached a 5-year nearest-futures low largely due to increased sugar output in Brazil and a forecasted global sugar surplus. Czarnikow raised its global 2025/26 sugar surplus estimate to 8.7 million metric tons (MMT), up from 7.5 MMT in September.
Brazil’s sugar production forecast for 2025/26 was increased by Conab to 45 MMT from 44.5 MMT, with Center-South output in early October growing by 1.3% year-over-year to 2.484 million tons. In India, the Sugar Mill Association’s revised projection for 2025/26 is now 31 MMT, an increase of 18.8% year-over-year. Thailand’s sugar output for 2025/26 is also expected to rise by 5% to 10.5 MMT, contributing to bearish market pressures.
The International Sugar Organization forecasts a global sugar deficit for the 2025/26 season of -231,000 MT, a decrease from the -4.88 MMT shortfall in the previous season. Meanwhile, USDA predicts global sugar production will climb 4.7% year-over-year to 189.318 MMT, with record consumption projected at 177.921 MMT.
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