As of today, October NY world sugar #11 is up by 0.08 (+0.48%), while August London ICE white sugar #5 has decreased by 29.10 (-5.89%). This mixed market response follows the USDA’s announcement that the US will not import specialty sugar beyond the limits set by international trade laws.
In London, sugar prices are influenced by a global sugar surplus outlook, with Pakistan recently reducing its sugar tender from 300,000 MT to 50,000 MT to combat high domestic prices. A forecast by commodities trader Czarnikow anticipates a 7.5 MMT surplus globally in the 2025/26 season, the largest in 8 years. Meanwhile, Brazil’s sugar output has declined by 14.3% year-over-year to 12.249 MMT due to adverse weather conditions.
Further affecting prices, India’s sugar production is projected to increase by 19% year-over-year to 35 MMT in 2025/26 due to expanded cane planting, contrasting with a 17.5% decline in the previous year to 26.2 MMT. Thailand also expects a 14% increase in sugar production to 10.00 MMT for the 2024/25 season, suggesting a bearish outlook for sugar prices amid increasing global supplies.
