On July 3, 2023, sugar prices fell, with New York world sugar #11 down 0.08 cents (-0.49%) and August London ICE white sugar #5 down 5.30 (-1.12%), marking a four-year low for sugar futures. This decline is attributed to expectations of a global sugar surplus, as projected by the USDA, which estimates a record 189.318 million metric tons (MMT) of global sugar production for 2025/26, a 4.7% increase year-over-year, alongside a surplus of 41.188 MMT.
In India, the anticipated sugar production for 2025/26 is set to rise by 19% to 35 MMT due to increased cane acreage and favorable monsoon conditions, which could affect prices negatively. Conversely, Brazil’s 2025/26 sugar output is expected to rise to 44.7 MMT, a 2.3% increase year-over-year. However, Brazil’s production has faced challenges, with reports indicating a 6.8% year-over-year decline in early May 2023.
The International Sugar Organization revised its global sugar deficit forecast for 2024/25 to -5.47 MMT, indicating a tightening market following a surplus in 2023/24. Drought and heat have severely impacted Brazilian production, potentially losing up to 5 MMT due to crop damage, with projections showing a decline to 44.118 MMT for 2024/25.
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