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As of today, March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) has decreased by 0.07 points (0.47%) while March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) has increased by 2.10 points (0.50%). The International Sugar Organization (ISO) has forecasted a 1.625 million MT sugar surplus for the 2025-26 marketing year, following a deficit of 2.916 million MT in 2024-25. This surplus is attributed to increased sugar production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan, with global sugar production expected to rise by 3.2% year-on-year to 181.8 million MT in 2025-26.
India’s food ministry announced it is contemplating higher ethanol prices, which may lead sugar mills to focus more on ethanol production, potentially limiting sugar supplies. As of last Friday, India’s export quota for sugar has been set at 1.5 million MT for the 2025-26 season, down from earlier estimates of 2 million MT. Additionally, the India Sugar Mill Association has raised its 2025-26 sugar production estimate to 31 million MT, an increase of 18.8% year-on-year.
Meanwhile, Brazil’s sugar production forecast for 2025-26 has been lifted to 45 million MT, reflecting a significant increase in output driven by favorable conditions. The USDA projects global sugar production to reach 189.318 million MT in the same period, with world consumption rising to a record 177.921 million MT.
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