March New York world sugar #11 (SBH26) closed down $0.01 (-0.07%) on Thursday, marking a 1.5-week low, while March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) remained unchanged. Increased global sugar production and a projected surplus are contributing to the downward pressure on prices, with Green Pool Commodity Specialists forecasting a 2.74 million metric ton (MMT) surplus for 2025/26 and a 156,000 MT surplus for 2026/27.
Recent reports indicate that Brazil’s sugar output for the 2025-26 season rose by 0.9% year-over-year to 40.222 MMT, while India’s output from October 1 to January 15 surged by 22% year-over-year to 15.9 MMT. The India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) has increased its 2025/26 production estimate for India from 30 MMT to 31 MMT, reflecting an 18.8% year-over-year increase. Additionally, the USDA projects global sugar production will increase by 4.6% year-over-year to a record 189.318 MMT.
Concerns about oversupply have led the International Sugar Organization (ISO) to predict a 1.625 million MT surplus for the 2025-26 season, driven by rising production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan. Sugar traders are also adjusting their forecasts, with Czarnikow raising its surplus estimate to 8.7 MMT.
