On Monday, October NY world sugar #11 (SBV25) closed down by 0.27 cents (-1.63%), and August London ICE white sugar #5 (SWQ25) fell by 14.90 cents (-3.08%). Sugar prices have sharply declined in the past three months due to expectations of a global sugar surplus, with projections indicating a 7.5 million metric tons (MMT) surplus for the 2025/26 season—the largest in eight years, according to commodities trader Czarnikow.
Key factors contributing to the bearish outlook include increased sugar production forecasts in major producing countries. For example, the USDA expects global sugar production to rise by 4.7% year-on-year to a record 189.318 MMT for 2025/26, while India anticipates a 19% increase in its production to 35 MMT due to expanded cane acreage and favorable monsoon conditions. Additionally, Brazil’s production is expected to rise 2.3% to a record 44.7 MMT during the same period.
Current trading data indicates that sugar prices are under pressure from signs of larger global output. For instance, Brazil’s output is down 14.3% year-on-year as of June 2025/26, which seems contradictory to earlier projections of increased production, highlighting the complexities in global sugar supply dynamics.
