On Friday, March NY sugar #11 closed at -0.43 points (-2.93%), marking a 2.5-month low, while March London ICE white sugar #5 dropped by -7.10 points (-1.72%), reaching a 5-year low. The decline is attributed to forecasts of increased global sugar production leading to surpluses, with Green Pool Commodity Specialists estimating a surplus of 2.74 million metric tons (MMT) for 2025/26.
According to the India Sugar Mill Association, India reported a 22% year-on-year increase in sugar output, totaling 15.9 MMT from October 1 to January 15. The estimate for India’s total sugar production for 2025/26 was raised to 31 MMT, a rise of 18.8% from previous forecasts. Additionally, Brazil’s sugar production is projected to hit 45 MMT for the same period, influencing bearish trends in global sugar prices.
The USDA forecasts global sugar production for 2025/26 will rise by 4.6% year-on-year to a record 189.318 MMT, while global consumption is expected to increase by 1.4% to reach 177.921 MMT. The anticipated ending stocks for 2025/26 are projected to fall by 2.9% year-on-year to 41.188 MMT.
