As of the latest trading day, July NY world sugar #11 (SBN25) fell by 0.15 cents (-0.93%), while August London ICE white sugar #5 (SWQ25) rose by 3.50 cents (+0.75%). Sugar prices have dropped for three consecutive months, reaching 4-year lows due to expectations of a global surplus.
The USDA’s recent report forecasts a 4.7% increase in global sugar production for 2025/26 to a record 189.318 million metric tons, with a surplus of 41.188 million metric tons. Meanwhile, India’s sugar production is projected to rise by 19% year-over-year to 35 million metric tons, influenced by favorable monsoon conditions.
Brazil’s sugar production is also expected to grow by 2.3% year-over-year to 44.7 million metric tons, despite lower cumulative output reported for the current season. The International Sugar Organization has raised its 2024/25 global sugar deficit forecast to a 9-year high of -5.47 million metric tons, indicating a tighter market following the recent surplus.
