May NY world sugar #11 (SBK26) rose by 1.58% to $0.1340 per pound, while August London ICE white sugar #5 (SWQ26) increased by 1.67% to $0.4190 per pound. An estimate from sugar trader Czarnikow has revised the global sugar surplus for the 2026/27 season down to 1.1 million metric tons (MMT) from 3.4 MMT, indicating tighter supply conditions.
In Brazil, sugar production for the 2025/26 crop is projected at 44.196 MMT, a 0.1% increase year-on-year, with 50.61% of cane crushed for sugar. Meanwhile, India’s sugar production is expected to reach 29.3 MMT for the same period, a 12% increase from the previous year. These developments follow a significant rise in crude oil prices, which may lead sugar mills to divert more cane to ethanol production, further constraining sugar supplies.
The International Sugar Organization forecasts a global sugar production increase of 3.0% year-on-year, reaching 181.3 MMT in 2025/26. The USDA projects a record global sugar production of 189.318 MMT for the same year, a 4.6% rise from the previous year, while human sugar consumption is expected to reach 177.921 MMT, marking a 1.4% increase.
