On July 5, 2023, sugar prices increased sharply, with July NY world sugar #11 rising by 2.20% and August London ICE white sugar #5 rising by 2.81%, marking a one-week high. This surge follows a tightening global sugar supply forecast, as consultant Datagro revised its 2026/27 global sugar surplus deficit estimate to -3.17 million metric tons (MMT), and StoneX projected a global sugar market deficit of -550,000 MT for the 2026/27 season.
Citigroup forecasted Brazil’s sugar production for 2026/27 at 39.50 MMT, significantly lower than Conab’s estimate of 43.95 MMT, attributing the decline to increased sugarcane allocation for ethanol amidst high gasoline prices. Concurrently, concerns regarding supply disruptions due to the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which affects approximately 6% of the world’s sugar trade, have further supported sugar prices.
The USDA’s recent report indicates an expected 2026/27 sugar surplus in India of 2.5 MMT, the first surplus in two years. This follows the government’s approval for an additional 500,000 MT of sugar for export for the 2025/26 season. Overall, a growing number of analysts are reducing their surplus estimates, reflecting an increasingly tighter global sugar market.
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