On July 3, 2023, sugar prices experienced an uptick, with July NY world sugar #11 rising by 0.06 (+0.40%) and August London ICE white sugar #5 increasing by 4.20 (+0.96%). This price movement is driven by concerns over tighter global supplies, as StoneX forecasts a global sugar market deficit of 550,000 MT for the 2026/27 season, a sharp decline from the 2.3 MMT surplus in 2025/26.
Citigroup estimates Brazil’s 2026/27 sugar production at 39.50 million metric tons (MMT), below Conab’s prediction of 43.95 MMT, due to increased sugarcane allocation for ethanol production amid rising gasoline prices. Ongoing supply disruptions are also influenced by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, affecting about 6% of the world’s sugar trade.
Additionally, the USDA anticipates a surplus of 2.5 MMT in India’s 2026/27 sugar output, its first in two years, with production projected at 35.25 MMT due to favorable monsoon conditions. In light of these developments, various trading firms have revised down their estimates for global sugar surpluses, signaling a tighter market ahead.
5 Stocks Our Experts Predict Could Double In the Next Year
By submitting your email, you'll also get a free pivot & flow membership. A free daily market overview. You can unsubscribe at any time.
