On October 2, 2023, October NY world sugar #11 (SBV25) fell by -0.26 (-1.57%) and August London ICE white sugar #5 (SWQ25) dropped -13.60 (-2.79%). This decline follows a steep drop in sugar prices over the past three months, driven by expectations of a global sugar surplus, with the USDA forecasting a record 2025/26 global sugar production of 189.318 million metric tons (MMT), a 4.7% increase year-over-year.
Key figures include the Indian Ministry of Earth Sciences projecting a monsoon resulting in 105% of the long-term average rainfall, expected to boost India’s sugar production by 19% to 35 MMT for the 2025/26 season. Moreover, Brazil’s sugar production for the same period is anticipated to rise by 2.3% to a record 44.7 MMT. In contrast, cumulative sugar output in Brazil’s Center-South region has decreased by 14.3% to 12.249 MMT through June 2023 due to adverse weather conditions.
Additionally, India’s sugar exports for the 2024/25 season may be limited to 800,000 MT, signifying a reduced global supply capacity. The International Sugar Organization has modified its global sugar deficit forecast for 2024/25 to -5.47 MMT, indicating a tightening market following prior surplus conditions.
