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On Friday, March NY world sugar #11 closed at -0.09 (-0.63%), while December London ICE white sugar #5 fell by -3.30 (-0.80%), marking a 4.75-year low for London sugar futures. The decline in prices is attributed to an increased global sugar supply, particularly from Brazil, which has projected a 2025/26 sugar production of 45 million metric tons (MMT), an increase from the previous estimate of 44.5 MMT.
Brazil’s Center-South sugar output for early October rose by 1.3% year-on-year to 2.484 million tons, with an increased percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar at 48.24%. In India, the Indian Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) estimates that sugar production for 2025/26 will reach 31 MMT, a surge of 18.8% year-on-year, further diminishing prices. Meanwhile, Thailand anticipates a 5% increase in its sugar crop for 2025/26 to 10.5 MMT.
The International Sugar Organization forecasts a global sugar deficit of 231,000 MT for 2025/26, a significant decrease from the 4.88 MMT shortfall of 2024/25. Additionally, the USDA predicts that global sugar production will rise to a record 189.318 MMT and sugar consumption will increase to 177.921 MMT in the same year.
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