As of today, March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) is up by +0.07 (+0.48%), while March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) has decreased by -4.00 (-0.95%). Factors influencing these price movements include the weak dollar and an increase in global sugar production, particularly from Brazil and India.
Reports indicate that Brazil’s cumulative sugar output for the 2025-26 season rose by +0.9% year-on-year to 40.222 million metric tons (MMT), while India’s sugar output surged by +22% year-on-year to 15.9 MMT from October 1 to January 15. The Indian Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) revised its India sugar production forecast for 2025-26 to 31 MMT, up +18.8%, alongside plans to allow additional sugar exports to manage domestic supply surplus.
In terms of global projections, Covrig Analytics has increased the global sugar surplus estimate for 2025-26 to 4.7 MMT, while the USDA anticipates a record 189.318 MMT of global sugar production for the same period, marking a +4.6% increase year-on-year. Brazil and India are expected to drive this growth, with production estimates at 44.7 MMT and 35.25 MMT, respectively.
