**Sugar Prices Decline as Global Surplus Outlook Grows**
On Friday, March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) closed down 1.12% at a three-month low, with London’s ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) falling 0.86%. The decline follows a report from Unica indicating that Brazil’s cumulative sugar output for the 2025-26 season has risen by 0.9% year-over-year to 40.236 million metric tons (MMT). Analysts from Czarnikow anticipate a global sugar surplus of 3.4 MMT for the 2026-27 crop year, following an 8.3 MMT surplus in 2025-26.
Brazil’s estimated sugar production for the 2025-26 season has been revised upwards to 45 MMT, according to Conab. In contrast, India’s output for the same period shows a significant increase of 22% year-over-year to 15.9 MMT, potentially boosting its exports as the government may allow additional shipments to address domestic surpluses. The International Sugar Organization forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 MMT for 2025-26, driven by rising production in India and other major producers.
