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On Friday, March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) closed down 0.30 cents (1.90%) and December London ICE white sugar #5 (SWZ25) fell by 1.60 cents (0.36%). Sugar prices have been under pressure due to increased supply forecasts, with BMI Group projecting a global surplus of 10.5 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 season.
Brazil’s sugar output rose by 10.8% year-on-year in September to 3.137 MMT, while India’s sugar production is expected to increase by 19% year-on-year to 34.9 MMT, aided by favorable monsoon rains. The Indian Meteorological Department reported cumulative monsoon rainfall of 937.2 mm as of September 30—8% above normal—marking the strongest rainfall in five years.
Additionally, Thailand projected a 5% increase in sugar production for the 2025/26 season to 10.5 MMT. As a result of these projections, the market outlook remains bearish, despite some temporary support from lower sugar content in Brazil’s sugarcane.
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