As of Friday, March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) closed at $14.65, down $0.23 (-1.54%), while March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) closed at $420.40, down $7.00 (-1.64%). Increased global sugar production is pressuring prices, with Brazil’s Center-South sugar output for 2025-26 projected to rise by 0.9% year-over-year to 40.222 million metric tons (MMT).
India’s sugar output from October 1 to January 15 has surged by 22% year-over-year to 15.9 MMT, prompting the India Sugar Mill Association to raise its full season estimate for 2025-26 to 31 MMT, an 18.8% increase. This follows indications from the government that an additional 1.5 MMT of sugar exports may be permitted to alleviate a domestic surplus.
Analysts at Covrig Analytics have increased their global sugar surplus projection for 2025-26 to 4.7 MMT, while the International Sugar Organization forecasts a surplus of 1.625 MMT, primarily due to rising production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan. Additionally, projections indicate Brazil’s sugar production may increase by 2.3% year-over-year to 44.7 MMT in 2025-26.
