As of today, March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) has decreased by 0.02 cents to 14.29 cents per pound, reaching a 2.5-month low, while March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) has fallen by $1.60 to $410.30 per tonne, hitting a 5-year low. This decline reflects a significant bearish outlook for sugar prices due to expected global surpluses, with projections from Green Pool Commodity Specialists estimating a global surplus of 2.74 million metric tons for the 2025/26 season.
Notable production statistics indicate Brazil’s cumulative sugar output for the 2025/26 season has increased by 0.9% year-on-year to 40.22 million metric tons, while India’s output for the same period has surged by 22% year-on-year to 15.9 million metric tons, prompting a revised production estimate of 31 million metric tons. High production levels are casting a shadow on prices amid reports of increased exports from India to alleviate domestic supply gluts.
The USDA anticipates global sugar production will rise by 4.6% year-on-year to a record 189.3 million metric tons for 2025/26, with Brazil leading the increase at 44.7 million metric tons and India expected to produce 35.25 million metric tons. These developments are reshaping the landscape for global sugar markets, pressing prices downward amidst rising supply forecasts.
