March New York world sugar #11 (SBH26) decreased by 0.04 cents (-0.27%), while March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) fell by 2.70 cents (-0.66%) today. This marks a continuation of the week’s decline, with New York sugar reaching a 1.5-week low and London sugar a 2.5-month low, primarily due to expectations of increased global sugar production and surpluses. Green Pool Commodity Specialists project a global sugar surplus of 2.74 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 season and a surplus of 156,000 MT for 2026/27.
Brazil’s cumulative sugar output for the 2025-26 season is reported at 40.222 MMT, up 0.9% year-over-year, according to Unica. In India, the sugar output from October 1 to January 15 increased by 22% year-over-year to 15.9 MMT, prompting the Indian Sugar Mill Association to revise the country’s total production estimate for 2025/26 from 30 MMT to 31 MMT, an 18.8% increase year-over-year.
The USDA forecasts a record global sugar production of 189.318 MMT for the 2025/26 season, indicating a 4.6% increase year-over-year, alongside a 1.4% rise in human sugar consumption to 177.921 MMT. These factors have contributed to bearish sentiment in the sugar market, particularly with supportive forecasts for production growth in Brazil, India, and Thailand.
