March 2026 New York world sugar #11 closed at 14.43 cents per pound, down 1.30% (-0.19 cents), while March London ICE white sugar #5 ended at $415.10 per metric ton, down 1.39% (-$5.80) on Wednesday. This decline reflects ongoing pressure on sugar prices due to anticipated global surpluses, with analysts from Czarnikow projecting a surplus of 3.4 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2026/27 crop year after an 8.3 MMT surplus in 2025/26.
Further contributing to the bearish outlook, Brazil’s sugar production is expected to increase to a record 45 MMT for the 2025/26 crop year, as forecasted by Conab. In India, the Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) reported a 22% year-on-year increase in sugar output, reaching 15.9 MMT between October 1 and January 15, and raised its 2025/26 production estimate to 31 MMT. India’s government may also permit additional exports to alleviate domestic supply issues, further pressuring global prices.
On the supply front, the USDA anticipates global sugar production will rise to 189.3 MMT in 2025/26, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%. Concurrently, global sugar consumption is projected to advance to 177.9 MMT, a 1.4% increase. Analysts underscore that these trends point towards continued downward pressure on sugar prices in the coming years.
