Arabica coffee prices surged to a 6-week high on Monday, with September arabica (KCU26) closing up 2.07% at +7.00. In contrast, September ICE robusta coffee (RMU26) saw an increase of 1.35%, closing up +49. This price jump is attributed to the slow pace of Brazil’s coffee harvest, which is currently only 90% complete, trailing last year’s 97% and the five-year average of 94%, according to Safras & Mercado.
Falling inventories are contributing to rising arabica prices, as ICE arabica coffee stock levels declined to a 2.75-year low of 231,340 bags, while robusta inventories rose to a five-month high of 4,537 lots. The recent 7.4 magnitude earthquake in Colombia, impacting coffee-growing provinces like Caldas and Risaralda, has also influenced prices, although coffee exports have partially resumed through the Buenaventura port.
In Vietnam, robusta coffee exports rose by 21.1% year-on-year to 1.31 million metric tons for the first half of 2026, contributing to bearish trends for robusta prices. The USDA’s forecast predicts global coffee output will increase by 6% to a record 189.7 million bags in the 2026/27 season, driven largely by Brazilian production improvements.
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