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On October 10, crude oil prices fell to a 5.25-month low, with November WTI crude oil down by $0.33 (-0.56%), reflecting concerns over a projected global supply glut of 4.0 million bpd by the International Energy Agency (IEA) for 2026. Concurrently, November RBOB gasoline rose by $0.0035 (+0.19%). The decline in crude oil prices has been attributed to renewed trade tensions with China, which threaten global economic growth and energy demand.
Crude oil stored on tankers increased by 8.9% week-over-week to 93.96 million barrels, indicating a surplus in supply. Meanwhile, OPEC+ agreed to a modest production increase of 137,000 bpd starting in November. U.S. crude oil production as of October 3 rose to 13.629 million bpd while inventories were reported to be below the seasonal five-year average by 4.5%. Additionally, reduced crude exports from Russia, now at 1.88 million bpd—the lowest average in over 3.25 years—provide some support for prices amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions.
The announcement from Iraq regarding the resumption of oil exports, potentially adding 500,000 bpd to global supplies, raises further bearish concerns for crude prices. As of October 10, the U.S. active oil rig count decreased by 4 to 418, showing a significant drop from a high of 627 rigs in December 2022.
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